The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its 2025 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (WA GSOO), which forecasts Western Australia’s domestic gas market will remain broadly balanced in the near-term.
Drawing on data from industry participants and public sources, the 2025 WA GSOO examines adequacy within the state’s domestic gas market to support planning and investment from 2026 through to 2045.
AEMO Executive General Manager WA Kirsten Rose said the 2025 WA GSOO outlook has been extended from 10 years to 20 years for the first time to provide greater visibility of potential market dynamics and underpin longer-term policy and investment decisions.
“Western Australia’s domestic gas market is forecast to remain broadly balanced in the near-term,” Ms Rose said.
“During this period, new supply will progressively come online from late 2026, while consumption is expected to grow from 2026 and reach its highest point in 2030,” she added.
A potential supply gap in 2028 is lower than previously forecast and could be mitigated with higher domestic output from existing facilities, or new gas supply projects coming online earlier than currently anticipated.
Looking longer-term, all domestic gas consumption is expected to steadily decrease from 1,295 TJ/day in 2030 to 1,044 TJ/day by 2045 as homes, businesses and industry increasingly electrify.
However, forecasts identify opportunities for new gas investment, as potential supply gaps of 11 TJ/day emerge in 2030 and progressively widen to 478 TJ/day in 2045 – driven primarily by production declining at a faster rate than consumption.
“A combination of solutions, including the continued investment in new gas developments, alongside increased supply flexibility, could address potential longer-term shortfall risks,” Ms Rose said.
Meanwhile, gas consumption for electricity generation in Western Australia’s main electricity grid, the South West Interconnected System (SWIS), will continue to play a critical role.
“As industry, governments and consumers increasingly invest in renewable generation and storage, gas consumption for electricity generation will become more variable and seasonal – supporting high demand periods and times when the sun isn’t shining and wind isn’t blowing,” Ms Rose said.
ENDS